It's Baaack!

By: Christy Henderson | News Channel 7
Published: July 11, 2009 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

The next time you need something to blame, you can once again blame it on El Nino. Did the boss ask why you were late to work? El Nino. Do you have a stomach ache? El Nino. TV malfunctioning? It must be El Nino.

In all seriousness, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a press release making it official that El Nino conditions are now present. That means that the sea surface temperatures along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean are WARMER than they are supposed to be. Winds that normally blow away from South America towards the Pacific Ocean relax, making it more difficult for nutrient rich cold water to rise up as the surface water is pushed away from South America with the winds. This can cause massive fish kills when the fish can't find the food they normally would at the depth they're expecting to find it.

El Nino conditions change rain and drought patterns in the tropics, which in turn changes the storm track around the globe. It's really amazing how much interaction the ocean has with the atmosphere in this situation to change the weather for so many people around the world.

For us, El Nino conditions mean that our hurricane season may be slower and weaker. Of course it only takes one landfall to make the season a bad one, but during these events, fast upper level winds are present over tropical regions in Atlantic to limit a hurricane's ability to gain or maintain strength. This setup can even redirect a hurricane back out to sea before it has a chance to impact the U.S. It's almost as if they do a U-turn in the middle of the ocean. I saw this happen in 1997 - a record breaking El Nino episode. We'll see how strong this one turns out to be and what kind of impacts it ends up having on the season. The last El Nino that took place happened in 2006. This one is forecast to last into early next year at the earliest - pretty typical.

So it's likely that in the next several months, unusual weather will happen in many places, and El Nino will be blamed. In this case, the reports will probably be right.