The Tropics are Active, Right on Time

Dan Bickford

The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, so the recent increase in stormy weather through the Tropics should really come as no surprise.

By Dan Bickford
Published: August 29, 2008

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The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, so the recent increase in stormy weather through the Tropics should really come as no surprise.

What is an issue for the United States is that our upper-level weather pattern has changed over the past couple of weeks. We have gone from an area of relative low pressure over the East Coast…whose southwesterly winds aloft would serve to steer potential tropical weather back out to sea…to a ridge of high pressure over the East. While this may serve to deflect storms away from the Carolinas, the upper wind direction is now more northerly along the coast, more westerly in the northern Caribbean, and becoming southerly in the Gulf of Mexico. This is why Gustav is being pushed into the Gulf, and why Hanna will approach from the east, and is then forecast to be pushed southward into the Bahamas.

Assuming this area of high pressure holds, Gustav, and its remnants after an expected landfall early next week, could be steered well away from us, with no impacts on our weather. This is not good news, however, for the northern Gulf Coast.

It remains to be seen what will become of Hanna in the long-term. If high pressure holds, this storm could be steered to Florida...if not, up the Southeast Coas it goes. This could mean impacts on the Carolinas.

With more areas of low pressure developing through the Atlantic, it seems certain that it will be awhile before we see the Tropics quiet down. As is typical, perhaps another month and a half…