Change in Climate, Bumpier Flights?

I just returned from the American Meteorological Society's Broadcast Meteorology Conference in Denver, a chance to refresh some old aquaintances, make some new ones, and even learn a few things. One of the centerpieces of the conference was a discussion on climate change...a topic that I will specifically revisit here in the near future.

The climate discussion got me to thinking about my own trip to and from the conference...in particular, how the "smoothness" of our flights might be affected.

I'll admit, I'm not the world's most frequent flier, but it seems to me that I have been on more "bumpy" flights over the past few years than in years past. I realize that may just be bad luck...or possibly my threshold for a bouncy ride has been steadily dropping with age. But, if one assumes the climate is running warmer, will that lead to more air turbulence?

The answer: it all depends. One source of turbulence is referred to as "clear-air turbulence", which is often associated with the jet stream. That jet stream is the "river of wind" we often mention during weathercasts, pushing weather systems across the country. The jet stream marks a boundary between warm and cold air at the surface. Assuming warmer weather overall, the jet stream should push farther north, on average. Also assuming that the Earth warms more quickly at the poles than farther south...and there is evidence this is occurring...then the decrease in temperature contrast from north-to-south would result in lighter jet stream winds...again, on average. Overall, a jet stream that is farther out of the main jet corridors with weaker winds would mean fewer encounters with turbulence.

However, the localized effects of climate change are harder to figure out, particularly when it comes to the size, strength, and frequency of stormier weather...whether we're looking at typical thunderstorms or larger, tropical systems. More frequent, stronger storms would mean more weather delays and certainly some bumpier rides. Fewer storms would be less trouble for air travel. It's possible that we would see both results, dependent on location across the country.

The net result? At least for now, the turbulence in the airline industry is a greater issue than any increased turbulence in the air.