Here, it’s a blast of cooler air and the prospect for below-normal temperatures for the next several days. Elsewhere, it’s the heavy bands of snow that have been seen in some of the Great Lakes states. And the question has already arisen: is this going to be a long, cold winter?
The answer: Yes. No. Maybe. Who knows?
I am one who is not a firm believer in “seasonal outlooks”: the forecasts we see telling us what the trends will be over the next 30 to 90 days. There are situations when warming and cooling of ocean water in the tropical Pacific---El Nino and La Nina---can create definite weather trends across parts of the U.S. There are also some similar situations that can play a role in our general weather pattern. As of now, these situations do not appear to apply to this winter season, so natural variability will determine how our winter will play out…and that is not something we can grasp months in advance. That said, the most recent “official” outlooks from NOAA for December through February call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our area. Do what you will with that information. Keep in mind that "above average" in the current outlook means there's about a 40% chance of being "above average".
Our current cold snap is the result of a big buckle in the jet stream---the winds high up in the atmosphere that help steer weather systems across the country. While the jet has dipped southward over the eastern states providing colder than normal weather, the opposite is true in the west, where unseasonably warm temperatures are taking place in some locations. How the jet stream shifts over the next few months will determine how our weather pattern plays out, and at this point there’s no reason to believe that any one configuration will be the dominant one as we head into winter.
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