The soaking rain that kicked off this week will be followed by rain chances of varying degrees in the week ahead, as we will be in a somewhat active weather pattern…with fronts affecting the region once every two or three days. Combine that with the very heavy rain some saw a few weeks ago, and it would appear that we have entered a wetter pattern.
To some degree, we do a get a period of weather like this every fall. As cooler air sinks southward with the change of seasons, we see more cold fronts passing through, leading to the potential for more rain. As cooler, drier air continues to establish itself throughout fall, those frontal passages get drier, and our rain chances become more limited. This is why mid-October through November are typically a drier time of year for us.
One thing that could be different for us this season is the presence of an El Nino weather pattern. El Nino is a cyclic warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and the effect of this shifts global weather patterns. This pattern is often associated with an increase in rain across the southern states during winter.
So this may lead to wetter months ahead and some long-term drought relief, right? Well, maybe, maybe not. The current outlook for the western Carolinas covering the winter months (as put out by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center) indicates near normal precipitation for us…with wetter weather possible closer to the coast and drier weather in the Tennessee Valley.
A “near-normal” designation doesn’t necessarily mean that precipitation will be normal; it means that there are equal chances of seeing above or below normal precipitation over that time frame. Which means it could be a wet winter; it could also be bone dry. Odds of one or the other are pretty equal to a coin flip at this point.
Only time will tell if we’re just seeing a brief, seasonal uptick in rain…or if a real rainy season will be upon us.
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