Do You Want the HYPE?

I’m calling it HYPE---the “Hysterical Yet Predictable Evolution” of the assorted weather models meteorologists use to determine weather in the days ahead.

When it comes to forecasting winter storms around here…and I’ve brought this up before…it often comes down to a change of just a degree or two either at the surface or at cloud base to determine whether a storm will be a major snow/ice event for us or just a cold rain. A deviation in storm track by just 25 miles can make a huge difference by re-adjusting where the rain/snow/ice lines set up.

As a result, it’s not hard to identify storm systems well in advance that could affect us, but it becomes very difficult to nail down all the particulars until the storm is a lot closer to us. So as any winter storm approaches, the details of what we may see end up changing over time…sometimes day-to-day.

This leads to the HYPE. In general, the HYPE is handled three ways.

The first is a measured approach, saying the possibility of something happening is out there, but being conservative with the forecast knowing the forecast model trends may be different 24 hours from now, and hitting it harder as the trends become more consistent. The upside is it keeps the forecast from bouncing around from day-to-day; the downside is that, with limited airtime to explain the possible scenarios, we can’t be as specific with the options as we would like. This leads to comments like “we’ll be watching this storm carefully”.

The second is the approach that bases every new forecast on the latest model guidance we get. Theoretically, the newest guidance would be the “best”, and this type of forecast would pick up on changes in the situation very quickly. However, if the model guidance is inconsistent, then the forecasts bounce around from day-to-day…you’ll hear snow one day, freezing rain one day, back to snow/rain the next.

The third is the “committed” approach. These people tend to see their version of the events, no matter what day-to-day variations the models show. These forecasts are based on feelings about the situation based on similar situations that have occurred in the past and include feelings about the forecast models…for example, they’re all “too warm” or “too dry” with a system. Some amazingly accurate forecasts are made this way…showing things other meteorologists may not have mentioned. Some incredible forecast “busts” occur this way, too…if it turns out that the forecast models weren’t “too warm” or “too dry”.

As meteorologists, we all identify primarily with one of these. I’m not telling what I think I am. We like to think we’re a fourth category…taking the best from all!

It’s a fine line…we would love to say four days in advance that we WILL get a certain amount of snow or ice; rare is the occasion such proclamations work…there are too many variables that can change too late in the game. I think the best thing we can do is be honest about the possibilities the best we can…this hopefully will give a good accounting for what to expect, eliminating any surprises.