Where's Winter?

For those of you who aren’t fans of cold, snow and ice…this winter has been great for you so far.  We’ve had a couple of short-lived cold blasts, but near or above average temperatures have been the rule since December. 

For those of you who like the cold and a fresh cover of snow on the ground, it’s been rough.  We’ve had a few rounds of snowfall in the mountains, but the above-average temperatures have limited the size and scope of those events.

(I assume no one cares for ice storms; we’ll ignore those and hope they stay away…)

All indications are that the relatively mild winter weather will remain with us over the next seven days…and barring any surprises it’s likely we’ll stay that way through the end of the month.  This means rain with most of our storm systems, and only short bouts of any true chill.

As for the rest of the winter: first, good news for the warm-weather lovers.  Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center put out their February outlook on Thursday, January 19.  Based on a combination of current global weather patterns and some computer forecasts of where those patterns are headed, they are forecasting more of the same: above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation.  In fact, their three-month outlook from February through April continues the same general theme.

Granted, even in a “warmer” set-up it’s still possible that one of those quick blasts of cold air would time out with a storm system and some moisture in the right place and we could get some wintry precipitation.  It’s just the overall odds are lower.

Now the good news for winter fans: winter’s not over!  Seasonal forecasts are often subject to some degree of error, and even a “mild” set-up may contain a couple of Arctic blasts.  In fact, as of last night’s data, one of the longer-range computer models we look at was spilling a bunch of very cold air into the nation’s mid-section for the first week of February, with that air spreading east.  There are some signs of at least a briefly extended pattern of colder air occurring in our future, even if it's not enough to keep it form being an "overall" mild winter. 

Long-range, seasonal forecasting is often as much art as it is science.  While there are a number of global weather patterns that lead to particular results, interactions with other patterns can muddy the results.  And the science involved in knowing how and when these patterns switch and shift is still relatively young. For example, we’re in a La Nina pattern, which typically means milder air for us in the Southeast.  There are some other patterns that can still compete and briefly override La Nina, meaning colder air can still rush in.  Plus, forecasting whether a La Nina will weaken or strengthen…and how quickly/slowly it does either…can still be an inexact science.  So while we may see one general pattern, a lot of little things could happen in there that could yield different result, if even for a few weeks.

The takeaway from all of this is: just because it’s been a quiet winter and some extended outlooks call for more of the same, that doesn’t mean that winter is over yet.  You need only to look back at the winter of 2008-2009…it was a very mild winter with little in the way of winter storms, then we had one big snowstorm March 1-2!