I do this every year.
National Signing Day is Wednesday. It's the day when football schools will be able to get the signatures of their prized recruits on the dotted line and then the "experts" will rank just how well the schools fared in convincing players their place is the place to be.
It's the only time that I know of in sports when it's more important to look like you did well compared to four years from now when we'll actually find out if any of these guys are good players.
Here's my yearly rant in a nutshell, which is virtually unchanged since I started it in the early 1980s, when as a sports guy I had to attend half a dozen or more signings on that day:
The NFL doesn't recruit, but it simply puts out a selection order - based on team record the previous season - where you get to pick players one at a time. The league has a scouting service that is available to all teams, plus each franchise employs an armada of scouts who evaluate talent.
The general managers and coaches will get to go over hours of videotape and written reports on these players before actually getting to test those prospects in person to judge their athletic ability. The teams conduct background checks that Homeland Security could only dream of doing.
Players are given full physicals by team doctors and must answer written questions on the Wonderlic Test. Here's a sample Wonderlic Test question courtesy of ESPN.com: Paper sells for 21 cents per pad. What will four pads cost?
They have four seasons of major college football results to judge these individual talents, who are going to be mature 21-23 year old bodies.
With all that information, testing and analysis at their fingertips, an NFL general manager will go out and pick - that's pick and not recruit - pick QB David Carr with the number one overall selection (2002). Or Tim Couch with the number one overall pick (1999). Or QB Akili Smith with the number three choice (1999). Or QB Ryan Leaf with the number two overall selection (1998).
So if the professional talent scouts, coaches and general managers can make such incredible mistakes on four-year college football stars, what makes you think Tom Lemming or Allen Wallace or the collective minds of Rivals.com can decide that 17-year old Billy Bob Johnson from Shreveport, LA is the number 4 cover cornerback in the nation ahead of 18-year old Mike Thompson, who is the number 5 cover corner from Rushville, Indiana?
They can't and you're throwing your money away on their fantasy selections that will carry your football fix until September rolls around when you see if any of these guys - and the recruits from previous years - can actually play.
Wow, I feel better writing it again instead of just cutting and pasting and old version in from previous rants.
Phil Kornblut - host of Sportstalk on the South Carolina Network and the guy who has reported on recruiting longer than anyone I know in this area - had this quote for The State newspaper recently about USC football recruiting. Please note that Phil doesn't evaluate talent, he reports on which schools are targeting which prospects:
“But it’ll take a couple of years before you really know. Just look at their receivers from two years ago. They (USC) were ranked No. 1 in the nation as a group. But look at them now.
“Chris Culliver is playing safety. Dion Lecorn is playing safety, and Mark Barnes is gone. Joseph Hills and Jason Barnes are showing some promise. It just takes some time to see what you’ve really got.”
And The Birmingham News has put together a list of this year's Associated Press All-American Team along with their Rivals star rating when they came out of high school.
Here are some notable findings:
Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford from Oklahoma - 3 stars
RB Shone Greene from Iowa (Ask your favorite Gamecock fan about him) - 3 stars
Alabama OL Andre Smith - 5 stars and was considered the second best prospect in the 2006 class
See the full summary by clicking here
See the full summary of all 119 teams from The Birmingham News by clicking here

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