Another Hurricane Forecast Tells Us Little

On May 21, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released their official outlook for the 2009 Atlantic/Gulf hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through the end of November.  You may have seen or heard news reports on this, with the focal point being the statement that nine to fourteen named systems are forecast, with four to seven becoming hurricanes…with one to three major hurricanes.  While those numbers may sound large, this represents a near “normal” hurricane season.

What you may not have heard was the “fine print”.  Specifically, the call for a 50% chance of a near-normal season in terms of storm numbers, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.

What does that mean for you and me?  It means expect anything.  There are still several questions about how our global patterns will play out a few months down the road as we enter the heart of hurricane season (most storms will occur from mid-August through mid-October).  There’s no clear signal that indicates that the hurricane season will swing one way or the other in terms of intensity.  This means, unless we get a more pronounced signal in the coming months, we’re subject to the whims of natural variability.  So, there’s an equal chance of having a normal season or a “not-normal” season.  That doesn’t really help much, does it?

The real point of these outlooks every year, however, is a good one: to raise awareness that hurricane season is about upon us, and that everyone who could potentially be in harm’s way should review their hurricane plans.  It’s also a good time to remember that it’s not the number of storms that matter…it’s the number that affect the coast, and that’s something that can not be predicted ahead of time.  We could have twenty storms and they all stay out to sea; we could have two, but one is “the big one” that goes right over a major metro area. 

For more on what you can do to be ready for hurricane season, click here.