Are The Numbers of Severe Storms Going Up?

Seeing video over the past several days from the Midwest and Plains of tornadoes and tornado damage brings a question to mind.  I’m sure the perception for many is that the number of times we’re hearing about damaging weather has been on the increase over the past several years.  The question: is our weather getting stormier?.

If you think you’re seeing more video of tornadoes and tornado damage than you used, to, you probably are.  I’m not aware of any formal statistics on this, but common sense tells you that with the explosion of this information age, we’re naturally going to see much more of what is happening out there.  Ever-present video and digital cameras are feeding the internet and 24-hour news channels, so there’s plenty of capability to capture and show things that may have been harder to view even ten years ago.  More concern and talk about the environment in recent years has also led to more coverage of weather events.  Thirty years ago, a typical tornado in Kansas would not have warranted much more than a small newspaper article in many other parts of the country.

The number of severe storm reports received by the National Weather Service has gone up over the past twenty years.  However, over that period the National Weather Service had ramped up their system of gathering weather reports, resulting in more storm spotters looking for hail and wind damage more aggressively.  It was always easy to get weather reports near population centers; with more eyes looking now, more reports of severe weather come in from everywhere.  Thirty years ago it would not have been uncommon for hail, strong winds, or even tornadoes to occur in some rural areas, especially at night, and not get reported.  These storms are now, especially in the Plains, often surrounded by storm spotters, news media, and citizens with cameras.  Nothing falls through the cracks anymore.

The result is: we are inundated with reports and video of severe weather these days…but that does not mean there is actually more nasty weather when compared to ten, twenty, or thirty years ago.

What about global warming?  An often-heard line is that we will see stormier weather with climate change.  Well, no matter what side of the fence you’re on with that issue, the National Science and Technology Council’s “Scientific Assessment on Climate Change” contains this: “Trends in other extreme weather events that occur at small spatial scales—such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, and dust storms—cannot be determined at the present time due to insufficient evidence.“

Bottom line: It’s always been stormy in this country, and it will be in the future….we’re just more aware of it now.