Guess What?  A Little Over a Month until Hurricane Season…

Lost in all the business of the rough weather from a week and a half ago, plus my one-week away from the office to “study” aquatic life in Florida, I have neglected (until now) to mention one of the first major outlooks for the 2009 hurricane season was issued on April 7 by the the “Tropical Meteorology Project” out of Colorado State (Dr. William Gray’s people for those of you who go by the names, although Dr. Gray is no longer the primary forecaster…Dr. Philip Klotzbach is, for the record).

Survey says: a “near-normal” season as far as hurricanes are concerned. Two major reasons: a lowering of Atlantic water temperatures, and the weakening of La Nina in the Pacific.

Lower water temperatures means less “fuel” for these storms. “La Nina” is a recurring condition in which the waters in the eastern Pacific are colder than normal. This impacts weather patterns. A weaking La Nina usually translates to more wind shear over the Atlantic: strong upper-level winds that tend to stifle hurricane growth. El Nino, a warming of the eastern Pacific waters, would lead to even more shear and more unfavorable conditions for hurricanes. Some possibility exists that a weak El nino could be in place at some point during the hurricane season.

What does this mean for you? Well, plenty of uncertainty. Taken alone, lower water temperatures would lower the numbers…but the relation between that and La Nina/El Nino is the key. If re remain in a weak La Nina or a “neutral” state, it is more likely we would see higher numbers of storms than if we slid into an El Nino. So by going “near-average”, we could still swing anywhere from a pretty quiet season to a rather busy one.

In the end, the number of storms doesn’t matter. There could be 20 named storms, but if none of then impact the coast, the season may seem relatively quiet, even if the numbers say otherwise. If we only have three hurricanes, but one strong one hits a major city, a “slow” season is of little consolation.

Expect more as we get into hurricane season…the NOAA (National hurricane Center) seasonal forecast usually comes out in mid-to-late May.

Click here for the complete April report from the Tropical Meteorology Project.