Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University published their latest forecast for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They increased the number of systems from their December update to 15 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), 8 of those named storms becoming hurricanes if their prediction is accurate, and 4 of those 8 hurricanes reaching category 3 status or higher (“major hurricane”). The average number of systems that form in the Atlantic going through 2000 are 10-6-2: 10 named storms, 6 of those hurricanes, and 2 of those 6 becoming major.
His team’s forecasts only project numbers – not when or where they will form, which is critical. It’s possible to see a very active season but have no landfalls, and it only takes one strong landfalling storm or hurricane to make the season a bad one.
Many meteorologists see the forecast as an interesting conclusion based on Gray and his team’s close study of different atmospheric and oceanic predictors, but the main focus is that regardless of how many tropical storms or hurricanes are forecast, everyone who is vulnerable to storm surge and wind damage from hurricanes should prepare now – have a plan in case a damaging tropical system targets our coastline.
Dr. Gray and Klotzbach and his team will issue an update to this forecast on Tuesday, June 3rd.
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